Will Your Business Survive?

There are various events that can cripple business. They include a meteorite strike (highly unlikely), terrorist attack (unlikely but possible) and an avian flu pandemic (probable, almost certain). The effects on business of such events can be mitigated to a substantial extent by having in place a robust business continuity plan.

Of all the major threats, avian flu is seen as by far and away the most serious. Estimates by the Civil Contingencies Group in the Cabinet Office put the anticipated number of UK deaths as high as 600,000 although many commercial organisations believe the government is underestimating this number; the last flu pandemic in 1918, when travel was far more restricted, killed a total of 50 million people.

Evolve Business Consultancy has led the way in helping government departments analyse the risks posed by a variety of threats, including a flu pandemic, and develop fully tested plans to cope with the aftermath.

Most recently we have worked with the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) on behalf of the Surrey Local Criminal Justice Board (LCJB) to support their Pandemic Flu planning process. Employing a business IT support service in a timely manner may indeed survive the business and make upcoming “black swans” minimised in their negative impact. Should a flu pandemic strike, any organisation without comprehensive procedures in place may be overwhelmed to such an extent that its operations could all but cease. Forward thinking executives are now planning for such an eventuality with the aim of maintaining their operations, albeit at a degraded but still functioning level.

Avian flu has infected humans before; (Spanish Flu 1918-19, Asian Flu 1957-58, Hong Kong Flu 1968-69). The current H5N1 virus threat appears to be the most dangerous as it mutates rapidly and acquires genes from other animal species. If a human were to suffer from normal flu and then contract H5N1, the avian flu will likely acquire the genes of the human flu and become contagious to humans. Until the virus with which H5N1 interacts becomes known, it is not possible to predict how deadly the disease will be, nor is it possible to develop an appropriate vaccine.

Scientists are agreed that it is not a question of “if” but “when” the pandemic will occur. It is estimated that a pandemic might last between four and twelve months. Anti viral drugs such as Tamiflu are capable of reducing both the severity of symptoms and longevity of illness, thus improving survival chances. In 2005 the UK government procured 14 million courses of anti viral drugs, sufficient for one quarter of the population. Timely and appropriate distribution of these may help to reduce the impact of the pandemic. Nevertheless, the health service will be overwhelmed and enforced quarantine measures will be likely. Schools may close, large public events may be cancelled and movement restricted.

The risks posed by avian flu are two fold, operational and resource:

Operational Risk. There will be disruption to service. While many businesses will close to prevent transmission of the infection, it is not known whether government organisations or the utility companies may attempt to run a normal service or will scale back non-essential activity. The illness may affect staff working in a particular department and staff in other departments and suppliers with whom they interact. Staff may be sick or caring for others. Some may be absent from work for fear of being infected, or, as a result of school closure, they may acquire unforeseen childcare responsibilities.

Resource Risk. Organisations will not be affected in isolation. Staff at hospitals may become infected as may transport operators and members of the Emergency Services and Armed Forces. Services supplied by the utility companies may be impaired. This reduced capacity to respond to the pandemic may lengthen the time society is affected.

In conclusion, there is a current threat of a pandemic of Avian Flu, which has a real potential to disrupt the economy, business and government operations. An outbreak in the UK and Northern Ireland may impact on the ability of both government and private sector organisations to run normal operations. A number of actions can be taken to mitigate and manage the risk.